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Valentine vs Weston Bears Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 04:00

Valentine

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Weston Bears

PPG 2.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 64.9% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-17.7%0-28.9%0-36.8%0-4+6.7%1 1-03.7%1-18.5%1-29.7%1-37.4%1-4+7.3%2 2-02.0%2-14.6%2-25.3%2-34.1%2-4+4.0%3 3-00.7%3-11.7%3-21.9%3-31.5%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.1% 22.2% 4.50 +2.4%

Draw 21.5% 21.1% 4.75 +1.3%

Away win 55.4% 67.6% 1.48 -18.0%

Over 2.5 63.3% 69.4% 1.44 -8.8%

Over 3.5 40.8% 51.0% 1.96 -20.0%

BTTS 61.6% 68.5% 1.46 -10.1%

Home O1.5 30.2% 36.0% 2.78 -16.0%

Away O1.5 64.9% 74.1% 1.35 -12.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob61.6%

A 55% / xG 1.1-2.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.9%

#4 1–3 7.4%

#5 0–3 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valentine1.1

Weston Bears2.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 40.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VALENTINE · PPG 1.20

WESTON BEARS · PPG 2.30

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.20 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Valentine (H) 23.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +2.4%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +1.3%

Weston Bears (A) 55.4%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -18.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valentine face Weston Bears in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valentine a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Weston Bears 55%, so Weston Bears are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Valentine and 2.3 for Weston Bears (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valentine are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 2.30 for Weston Bears.

Valentine vs Weston Bears Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

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