La Union vs UCAM Murcia Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Group 4 - 32 Estadio Juan Cayuela· Totana Sunday, April 19, 2026 10:00

La Union PPG 1.40

4-1 MISS

UCAM Murcia PPG 1.20

Home· +51.0% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

La Union face UCAM Murcia in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives La Union a 51% chance, the draw 23% and UCAM Murcia 25%, so La Union are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for La Union and 1.2 for UCAM Murcia (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, La Union are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.20 for UCAM Murcia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +51.0%. This match finished 4-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 51.2%

Odds: 2.95 EV: +51.0%

Draw 23.4%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -27.5%

Away 25.4%

Odds: 2.20 EV: -44.1%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 56.7% Odds: 2.05 +16.2%

Over 3.5 34.3% Odds: — —

BTTS 57.6% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

La Union

1.77

UCAM Murcia

1.18

Model SuggestionBTTS  EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (—), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.20)