Today / Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 / La Union vs UCAM Murcia
La Union vs UCAM Murcia Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Group 4 - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 10:00
// Model verdict
BTTS
Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.20)
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 24 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 51% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 58%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.7% · O3.5 PROB 34.3%
Form & verdict
LA UNION · PPG 1.40
UCAM MURCIA · PPG 1.20
Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.20)
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
La Union face UCAM Murcia in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives La Union a 51% chance, the draw 23% and UCAM Murcia 25%, so La Union are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for La Union and 1.2 for UCAM Murcia (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, La Union are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.20 for UCAM Murcia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +51.0%. This match finished 4-1.