Today / Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 / La Union vs UCAM Murcia

La Union vs UCAM Murcia Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Group 4 - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 10:00

La Union logo
La Union
PPG 1.40 · HOME
4 – 1
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS
UCAM Murcia logo
UCAM Murcia
PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.1%0-23.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.2%1-110.9%1-26.5%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.7%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.8%3-15.7%3-23.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.8%4+-22.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 51.2% 33.9% 2.95 +51.0%
Draw 23.4% 32.3% 3.10 -27.5%
Away win 25.4% 45.5% 2.20 -44.1%
Over 2.5 56.7% 48.8% 2.05 +16.2%
Over 3.5 34.3%
BTTS 57.6%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

League track record

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%
O2.5 75%
BTTS 67%
Score Hit 58%
ROI 10.3%
Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 4-1
xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob57.6%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%
#2 2–1 9.7%
#3 1–0 9.2%
#4 2–0 8.2%
#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

La Union1.8
UCAM Murcia1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.7% · O3.5 PROB 34.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LA UNION · PPG 1.40

UCAM MURCIA · PPG 1.20

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity
70%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

La Union (H) 51.2%
ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +51.0%
Draw 23.4%
ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -27.5%
UCAM Murcia (A) 25.4%
ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -44.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

La Union face UCAM Murcia in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives La Union a 51% chance, the draw 23% and UCAM Murcia 25%, so La Union are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for La Union and 1.2 for UCAM Murcia (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, La Union are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.20 for UCAM Murcia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +51.0%. This match finished 4-1.

PredictVantage

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