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CD Extremadura vs La Union Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Group 4 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

CD Extremadura

PPG 2.44 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

La Union

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-12.8%0-21.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.2%1-17.2%1-23.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.5%2-19.2%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.0%3-17.9%3-23.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-010.7%4+-19.4%4+-24.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.7% 63.7% 1.57 -4.7%

Draw 22.5% 28.6% 3.50 -21.3%

Away win 16.8% 20.0% 5.00 -16.0%

Over 2.5 60.5% 52.6% 1.90 +14.9%

Over 3.5 45.3% — — —

BTTS 57.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 10.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob57.9%

H 61% / xG 2.6-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 3–0 9.0%

#4 1–1 7.2%

#5 3–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CD Extremadura2.6

La Union0.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 45.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CD EXTREMADURA · PPG 2.44

LA UNION · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.44) vs P(Home)=60.7%

Win probability 1X2

CD Extremadura (H) 60.7%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -4.7%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -21.3%

La Union (A) 16.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

CD Extremadura face La Union in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CD Extremadura a 61% chance, the draw 23% and La Union 17%, so CD Extremadura are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for CD Extremadura and 0.9 for La Union (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CD Extremadura are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 1.13 for La Union. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.9%. This match finished 4-2.

CD Extremadura vs La Union Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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