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D. Minera vs Xerez D. FC Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Group 4 - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 10:00

D. Minera

PPG 2.40 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Xerez D. FC

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 78.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a clear edge.

+23.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-12.8%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.1%1-16.9%1-21.9%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.7%2-18.4%2-22.4%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.9%3-16.8%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-012.9%4+-17.3%4+-22.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 78.6% 63.7% 1.57 +23.4%

Draw 14.6% 29.9% 3.35 -51.1%

Away win 6.8% 19.0% 5.25 -64.3%

Over 2.5 57.6% 46.5% 2.15 +23.8%

Over 3.5 35.2% — — —

BTTS 39.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 10.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob39.5%

H 79% / xG 2.4-0.6 / O2.5 58% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.7%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 3–0 11.9%

#4 2–1✓ 8.4%

#5 4–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Minera2.4

Xerez D. FC0.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.6% · O3.5 PROB 35.2%

Form & verdict PPG

D. MINERA · PPG 2.40

XEREZ D. FC · PPG 0.87

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.40), Away POOR (0.87) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

D. Minera (H) 78.6%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV +23.4%

Draw 14.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -51.1%

Xerez D. FC (A) 6.8%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -64.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Minera face Xerez D. FC in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Minera a 79% chance, the draw 15% and Xerez D. FC 7%, so D. Minera are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for D. Minera and 0.6 for Xerez D. FC (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Minera are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 0.87 for Xerez D. FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.8%. This match finished 2-1.

D. Minera vs Xerez D. FC Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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