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Real Jaen vs Puente Genil Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Group 4 - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 16:00

Real Jaen

PPG 2.13 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Puente Genil

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 72.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-14.2%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.6%1-18.4%1-22.1%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.4%2-18.2%2-22.1%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.7%3-15.4%3-21.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-14.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.4% 66.7% 1.50 +8.6%

Draw 19.1% 28.6% 3.50 -33.1%

Away win 8.4% 16.7% 6.00 -49.6%

Over 2.5 44.9% — — —

Over 3.5 23.7% — — —

BTTS 34.0% 45.5% 2.20 -25.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 10.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob34.0%

H 72% / xG 2.0-0.5 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.6%

#2 2–0 16.4%

#3 3–0 10.7%

#4 0–0 8.4%

#5 1–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Jaen2.0

Puente Genil0.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.9% · O3.5 PROB 23.7%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL JAEN · PPG 2.13

PUENTE GENIL · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.13), Away POOR (0.71) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Real Jaen (H) 72.4%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV +8.6%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -33.1%

Puente Genil (A) 8.4%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -49.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Jaen face Puente Genil in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Jaen a 72% chance, the draw 19% and Puente Genil 8%, so Real Jaen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Real Jaen and 0.5 for Puente Genil (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Jaen are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 0.71 for Puente Genil. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Real Jaen vs Puente Genil Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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