Today / Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 / Recreativo H. vs Melilla

Recreativo H. vs Melilla Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Group 4 - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 09:30

Recreativo H.

PPG 2.07 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Melilla

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 72.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0% — a clear edge.

+19.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-14.3%0-20.9%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.7%1-18.0%1-21.7%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.6%2-17.5%2-21.6%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-011.0%3-14.7%3-21.0%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.9%4+-13.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.7% 61.0% 1.64 +19.2%

Draw 19.7% 31.3% 3.20 -37.0%

Away win 7.6% 19.6% 5.10 -61.2%

Over 2.5 40.6% 44.4% 2.25 -8.6%

Over 3.5 20.2% — — —

BTTS 29.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 10.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob29.5%

H 73% / xG 1.9-0.4 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 30%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 18.7%

#2 2–0 17.6%

#3 3–0 11.0%

#4 0–0 9.9%

#5 1–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Recreativo H.1.9

Melilla0.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.6% · O3.5 PROB 20.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RECREATIVO H. · PPG 2.07

MELILLA · PPG 0.33

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.07), Away POOR (0.33) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Recreativo H. (H) 72.7%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +19.2%

Draw 19.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -37.0%

Melilla (A) 7.6%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -61.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Recreativo H. face Melilla in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Recreativo H. a 73% chance, the draw 20% and Melilla 8%, so Recreativo H. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Recreativo H. and 0.4 for Melilla (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Recreativo H. are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 0.33 for Melilla. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Recreativo H. vs Melilla Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Predictions