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Antoniano vs Recreativo H. Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Group 4 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

Antoniano

PPG 2.06 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Recreativo H.

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.8%0-112.5%0-25.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.8%1-113.3%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.4%2-17.1%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.0%3-12.5%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 30.3% 3.30 +27.4%

Draw 33.3% 33.3% 3.00 -0.1%

Away win 28.1% 48.8% 2.05 -42.4%

Over 2.5 38.0% 44.4% 2.25 -14.5%

Over 3.5 12.7% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 10.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.5%

H 39% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.8%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 1–0 15.8%

#4 0–1 12.5%

#5 2–0✓ 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Antoniano1.1

Recreativo H.0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ANTONIANO · PPG 2.06

RECREATIVO H. · PPG 1.19

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=38.6%

Win probability 1X2

Antoniano (H) 38.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +27.4%

Draw 33.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -0.1%

Recreativo H. (A) 28.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -42.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Antoniano face Recreativo H. in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Antoniano a 39% chance, the draw 33% and Recreativo H. 28%, so Antoniano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Antoniano and 0.8 for Recreativo H. (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Antoniano are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.19 for Recreativo H.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +27.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Antoniano vs Recreativo H. Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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