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Lorca Deportiva vs Yeclano Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 logo Spain flag Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Group 4 - 33 Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco· Lorca Sunday, April 26, 2026 10:00
Lorca Deportiva logo Lorca Deportiva PPG 1.67
2-2 MISS
Yeclano logo Yeclano PPG 0.75
Home· +21.7% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Lorca Deportiva face Yeclano in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lorca Deportiva a 47% chance, the draw 31% and Yeclano 22%, so Lorca Deportiva are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Lorca Deportiva and 0.6 for Yeclano (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lorca Deportiva are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.75 for Yeclano. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.7%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 46.8%
Odds: 2.60 EV: +21.7%
Draw 31.4%
Odds: 2.85 EV: -10.5%
Away 21.8%
Odds: 2.60 EV: -43.3%
Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 38.0% Odds: —
Over 3.5 10.4% Odds: —
BTTS 40.9% Odds: —
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-0
2nd 1-0
3rd 1-1
4th 2-0
5th 0-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Lorca Deportiva
1.20
Yeclano
0.57

Model Suggestion

No Bet ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.

League Track Record

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%
O2.5/Under 75%
BTTS/No 67%
Score Hit 58%
ROI 15.0%
Bet Hit 71% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=46.8%

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