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Lorca Deportiva vs Yeclano Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Group 4 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

Lorca Deportiva

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Yeclano

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.1%0-19.8%0-22.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.4%1-111.7%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.2%2-17.0%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.9%3-12.8%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 38.5% 2.60 +21.7%

Draw 31.4% 35.1% 2.85 -10.5%

Away win 21.8% 38.5% 2.60 -43.3%

Over 2.5 38.0% — — —

Over 3.5 10.4% — — —

BTTS 40.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 10.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob40.9%

H 47% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.1%

#2 1–0 20.4%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 2–0 12.2%

#5 0–1 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lorca Deportiva1.2

Yeclano0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LORCA DEPORTIVA · PPG 1.67

YECLANO · PPG 0.75

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=46.8%

Win probability 1X2

Lorca Deportiva (H) 46.8%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +21.7%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -10.5%

Yeclano (A) 21.8%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -43.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lorca Deportiva face Yeclano in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lorca Deportiva a 47% chance, the draw 31% and Yeclano 22%, so Lorca Deportiva are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Lorca Deportiva and 0.6 for Yeclano (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lorca Deportiva are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.75 for Yeclano. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.7%. This match finished 2-2.

Lorca Deportiva vs Yeclano Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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