Almeria B vs D. Minera Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Group 4 - 33 Anexo Estadio de los Juegos del Mediterráneo· Almería Sunday, April 26, 2026 10:00

Almeria B PPG 0.75

3-4 MISS

D. Minera PPG 1.13

Home· +242.0% ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Almeria B face D. Minera in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almeria B a 28% chance, the draw 32% and D. Minera 39%, so D. Minera are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Almeria B and 1.3 for D. Minera (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almeria B are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.13 for D. Minera. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +242.0%. This match finished 3-4.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 28.5%

Odds: 12.00 EV: +242.0%

Draw 32.3%

Odds: 4.33 EV: +39.9%

Away 39.2%

Odds: 1.25 EV: -51.0%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 44.4% Odds: 1.85 -17.9%

Over 3.5 18.0% Odds: — —

BTTS 50.8% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 0-2 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Almeria B

0.92

D. Minera

1.28

Model SuggestionBTTS  NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is — at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+242.0%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5/Under 75%

BTTS/No 67%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 15.0%

Bet Hit 71% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.75) vs Away AVERAGE (1.13)