Today / Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 / Almeria B vs D. Minera

Almeria B vs D. Minera Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Group 4 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

Almeria B

PPG 0.75 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

D. Minera

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: POOR (0.75) vs Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-114.2%0-29.1%0-33.9%0-4+1.7%1 1-010.2%1-113.0%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-04.6%2-16.0%2-23.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.4%3-11.8%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.5% 8.3% 12.00 +242.0%

Draw 32.3% 23.1% 4.33 +39.9%

Away win 39.2% 80.0% 1.25 -51.0%

Over 2.5 44.4% 54.1% 1.85 -17.9%

Over 3.5 18.0% — — —

BTTS 50.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 10.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob50.8%

A 39% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 44% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 11.1%

#3 0–1 14.2%

#4 0–2 9.1%

#5 1–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almeria B0.9

D. Minera1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMERIA B · PPG 0.75

D. MINERA · PPG 1.13

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.75) vs Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Almeria B (H) 28.5%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +242.0%

Draw 32.3%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +39.9%

D. Minera (A) 39.2%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -51.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Almeria B face D. Minera in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almeria B a 28% chance, the draw 32% and D. Minera 39%, so D. Minera are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Almeria B and 1.3 for D. Minera (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almeria B are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.13 for D. Minera. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +242.0%. This match finished 3-4.

Almeria B vs D. Minera Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Predictions