← Back to picks

CD Estepona vs Aguilas FC Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 logo Spain flag Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Group 4 - 33 Estadio Municipal Francisco Muñoz Pérez· Estepona Sunday, April 26, 2026 10:00
CD Estepona logo CD Estepona PPG 0.94
2-1 MISS
Aguilas FC logo Aguilas FC PPG 1.56
Over2.5· +2.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value
63% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

CD Estepona face Aguilas FC in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CD Estepona a 36% chance, the draw 33% and Aguilas FC 31%, so CD Estepona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for CD Estepona and 1.1 for Aguilas FC (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CD Estepona are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 1.56 for Aguilas FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 36.4%
Odds: 2.65 EV: -3.5%
Draw 32.8%
Odds: 2.90 EV: -4.9%
Away 30.8%
Odds: 2.50 EV: -23.0%
Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 44.4% Odds: 2.30 +2.1%
Over 3.5 17.1% Odds: —
BTTS 51.0% Odds: —
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 0-0
3rd 0-1
4th 1-0
5th 1-2

Expected Goals (xG)

CD Estepona
1.05
Aguilas FC
1.10

Model Suggestion

BTTS NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is — at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Over2.5 (+2.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%
O2.5/Under 75%
BTTS/No 67%
Score Hit 58%
ROI 15.0%
Bet Hit 71% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value
63%
UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.56) vs Home POOR (0.94)

PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. We do not provide financial or betting advice. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly. 18+ only. BeGambleAware.org