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CD Estepona vs Aguilas FC Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Group 4 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

CD Estepona

PPG 0.94 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Aguilas FC

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.56) vs Home POOR (0.94)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-112.8%0-27.0%0-32.6%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.3%1-113.5%1-27.4%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.5%2-17.1%2-23.9%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.3%3-12.5%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 37.7% 2.65 -3.5%

Draw 32.8% 34.5% 2.90 -4.9%

Away win 30.8% 40.0% 2.50 -23.0%

Over 2.5 44.4% 43.5% 2.30 +2.1%

Over 3.5 17.1% — — —

BTTS 51.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 10.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.0%

D 33% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 44% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 11.7%

#3 0–1 12.8%

#4 1–0 12.3%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CD Estepona1.1

Aguilas FC1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CD ESTEPONA · PPG 0.94

AGUILAS FC · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.56) vs Home POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

CD Estepona (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -3.5%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -4.9%

Aguilas FC (A) 30.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -23.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

CD Estepona face Aguilas FC in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CD Estepona a 36% chance, the draw 33% and Aguilas FC 31%, so CD Estepona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for CD Estepona and 1.1 for Aguilas FC (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CD Estepona are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 1.56 for Aguilas FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.1%. This match finished 2-1.

CD Estepona vs Aguilas FC Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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