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Xerez CD vs CD Extremadura Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Group 4 - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 16:00

Xerez CD

PPG 2.13 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

CD Extremadura

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.5% vs bookmaker-implied 42.6% — a clear edge.

+32.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-17.8%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.0%1-111.6%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-18.6%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.2%3-14.3%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-12.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 42.6% 2.35 +32.8%

Draw 26.4% 34.7% 2.88 -24.0%

Away win 17.1% 33.3% 3.00 -48.7%

Over 2.5 36.8% 40.0% 2.50 -8.0%

Over 3.5 17.4% — — —

BTTS 38.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 10.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob38.2%

H 56% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.0%

#2 2–0 12.6%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 0–0✓ 11.5%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Xerez CD1.5

CD Extremadura0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.8% · O3.5 PROB 17.4%

Form & verdict PPG

XEREZ CD · PPG 2.13

CD EXTREMADURA · PPG 1.13

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs P(Home)=56.5%

Win probability 1X2

Xerez CD (H) 56.5%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +32.8%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -24.0%

CD Extremadura (A) 17.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -48.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Xerez CD face CD Extremadura in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Xerez CD a 56% chance, the draw 26% and CD Extremadura 17%, so Xerez CD are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Xerez CD and 0.7 for CD Extremadura (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Xerez CD are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.13 for CD Extremadura. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +32.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Xerez CD vs CD Extremadura Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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