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Temperley vs A. Rafaela Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 21 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 23:30

Temperley

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

A. Rafaela

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.0%0-110.4%0-23.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.7%1-112.1%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.5%2-17.0%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.4%3-12.7%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 54.1% 1.85 -8.8%

Draw 30.9% 35.1% 2.85 -11.9%

Away win 19.8% 21.1% 4.75 -3.6%

Over 2.5 36.5% 34.5% 2.90 +5.9%

Over 3.5 18.1% 14.3% 7.00 +16.0%

BTTS 46.3% 41.7% 2.40 +11.1%

Home O1.5 35.6% 40.8% 2.45 -12.8%

Away O1.5 18.8% 19.0% 5.25 -0.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 172 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -11.6%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.3%

H 49% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.0%

#2 1–0 19.7%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 2–0 11.5%

#5 0–1 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Temperley1.2

A. Rafaela0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TEMPERLEY · PPG 2.00

A. RAFAELA · PPG 0.70

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=49.3%

Win probability 1X2

Temperley (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -8.8%

Draw 30.9%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -11.9%

A. Rafaela (A) 19.8%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Temperley face A. Rafaela in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Temperley a 49% chance, the draw 31% and A. Rafaela 20%, so Temperley are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Temperley and 0.6 for A. Rafaela (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Temperley are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.70 for A. Rafaela. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.0%.

Temperley vs A. Rafaela Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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