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Supra du Quebec vs Vancouver FC Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Group Stage ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 23:00

Supra du Quebec

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDW

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Vancouver FC

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-110.6%0-26.1%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.5%1-113.1%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.1%2-18.1%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.9%3-13.3%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.5% 40.7% 2.46 -7.8%

Draw 27.2% 29.9% 3.35 -5.3%

Away win 35.4% 38.5% 2.60 -8.0%

Over 2.5 51.9% 58.8% 1.70 -11.8%

Over 3.5 33.2% 36.4% 2.75 -8.7%

BTTS 55.5% 65.4% 1.53 -15.1%

Home O1.5 38.2% 47.6% 2.10 -19.8%

Away O1.5 36.2% 45.5% 2.20 -20.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 2.9%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.5%

H 38% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 52% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.4%

#3 1–0 11.5%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Supra du Quebec1.2

Vancouver FC1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.9% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SUPRA DU QUEBEC · PPG 1.17

VANCOUVER FC · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Supra du Quebec (H) 37.5%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV -7.8%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -5.3%

Vancouver FC (A) 35.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Supra du Quebec face Vancouver FC in Canada - Premier League on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Supra du Quebec a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Vancouver FC 35%, so Supra du Quebec are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Supra du Quebec and 1.1 for Vancouver FC (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Supra du Quebec are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.80 for Vancouver FC. This match finished 1-5.

Supra du Quebec vs Vancouver FC Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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