Today / Canada - Premier League / A. Ottawa vs York Utd

A. Ottawa vs York Utd Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Group Stage ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 23:00

A. Ottawa

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

York Utd

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+14.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-13.4%0-22.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-05.7%1-17.9%1-25.4%1-32.5%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.6%2-19.2%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.2%3-17.1%3-24.9%3-32.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-17.2%4+-25.0%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.7% 54.3% 1.84 +2.5%

Draw 21.3% 27.8% 3.60 -14.0%

Away win 22.9% 27.0% 3.70 -9.2%

Over 2.5 67.1% 58.8% 1.70 +14.1%

Over 3.5 46.6% 36.4% 2.75 +28.1%

BTTS 63.8% 62.5% 1.60 +2.1%

Home O1.5 62.9% 56.5% 1.77 +11.3%

Away O1.5 39.0% 35.7% 2.80 +9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 51.8%

Bet Hit 89%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.8%

H 56% / xG 2.3-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 1–1 7.9%

#3 3–1 7.1%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Ottawa2.3

York Utd1.4

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 46.6%

Form & verdict PPG

A. OTTAWA · PPG 2.00

YORK UTD · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=55.7%

Win probability 1X2

A. Ottawa (H) 55.7%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV +2.5%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -14.0%

York Utd (A) 22.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Ottawa face York Utd in Canada - Premier League on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Ottawa a 56% chance, the draw 21% and York Utd 23%, so A. Ottawa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for A. Ottawa and 1.4 for York Utd (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Ottawa are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for York Utd. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +28.1%.

A. Ottawa vs York Utd Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Canada - Premier League Predictions