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Sao Bernardo vs Avai Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 18 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 22:00

Sao Bernardo

PPG 1.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Avai

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+30.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-14.9%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.7%1-19.8%1-24.5%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.3%3-16.7%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-15.4%4+-22.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.7% 52.6% 1.90 +5.8%

Draw 22.7% 30.8% 3.25 -15.7%

Away win 21.6% 23.8% 4.20 -5.6%

Over 2.5 59.1% 45.5% 2.20 +30.0%

Over 3.5 36.1% 23.8% 4.20 +51.6%

BTTS 55.5% 52.4% 1.91 +6.0%

Home O1.5 56.8% 47.6% 2.10 +19.3%

Away O1.5 26.0% 26.3% 3.80 -0.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 53.9%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.5%

H 56% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–0 10.8%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 3–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sao Bernardo2.0

Avai0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SAO BERNARDO · PPG 1.11

AVAI · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.11) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Sao Bernardo (H) 55.7%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +5.8%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -15.7%

Avai (A) 21.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sao Bernardo face Avai in Brazil - Serie B on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sao Bernardo a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Avai 22%, so Sao Bernardo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Sao Bernardo and 0.9 for Avai (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sao Bernardo are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.50 for Avai. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +51.6%.

Sao Bernardo vs Avai Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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