Today / Brazil - Serie B / Sao Bernardo vs Avai

Sao Bernardo vs Avai Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 18 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 22:00

Sao Bernardo

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Avai

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+30.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-14.9%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.7%1-19.8%1-24.5%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.3%3-16.7%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-15.4%4+-22.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.7% 52.6% 1.90 +5.8%

Draw 22.7% 30.8% 3.25 -15.7%

Away win 21.6% 23.8% 4.20 -5.6%

Over 2.5 59.1% 45.5% 2.20 +30.0%

Over 3.5 36.1% 23.8% 4.20 +51.6%

BTTS 55.5% 52.4% 1.91 +6.0%

Home O1.5 56.8% 47.6% 2.10 +19.3%

Away O1.5 26.0% 26.3% 3.80 -0.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.5%

H 56% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.8%

#2 2–0 10.8%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 3–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sao Bernardo2.0

Avai0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SAO BERNARDO · PPG 1.11

AVAI · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.11) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Sao Bernardo (H) 55.7%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +5.8%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -15.7%

Avai (A) 21.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sao Bernardo face Avai in Brazil - Serie B on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sao Bernardo a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Avai 22%, so Sao Bernardo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Sao Bernardo and 0.9 for Avai (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sao Bernardo are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.50 for Avai. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +51.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Sao Bernardo vs Avai Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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