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Juventude vs Cuiaba Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 18 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 22:00

Juventude

PPG 2.22 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Cuiaba

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-030.1%0-111.3%0-22.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-024.8%1-19.3%1-21.7%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-010.3%2-13.8%2-20.7%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.8%3-11.1%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.3%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 46.7% 2.14 -2.6%

Draw 31.4% 34.2% 2.92 -8.3%

Away win 23.1% 26.0% 3.85 -6.6%

Over 2.5 33.7% 33.3% 3.00 +1.1%

Over 3.5 16.1% 16.0% 6.25 +0.4%

BTTS 46.3% 42.0% 2.38 +10.2%

Home O1.5 33.3% 35.7% 2.80 -6.8%

Away O1.5 11.1% 22.2% 4.50 -30.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob46.3%

H 46% / xG 0.8-0.4 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 30.1%

#2 1–0 24.8%

#3 1–1 9.3%

#4 2–0✓ 10.3%

#5 0–1 11.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventude0.8

Cuiaba0.4

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.7% · O3.5 PROB 16.1%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUDE · PPG 2.22

CUIABA · PPG 1.25

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.22) vs P(Home)=45.5%

Win probability 1X2

Juventude (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV -2.6%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -8.3%

Cuiaba (A) 23.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventude face Cuiaba in Brazil - Serie B on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventude a 46% chance, the draw 31% and Cuiaba 23%, so Juventude are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Juventude and 0.4 for Cuiaba (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventude are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.25 for Cuiaba. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Juventude vs Cuiaba Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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