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America MG vs Ceara Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 18 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 22:00

America MG

PPG 0.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Ceara

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-114.2%0-28.4%0-33.3%0-4+1.3%1 1-011.2%1-113.3%1-27.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.2%2-16.2%2-23.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.6%3-11.9%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.0% 40.7% 2.46 -18.8%

Draw 30.2% 31.7% 3.15 -4.9%

Away win 36.9% 34.5% 2.90 +7.0%

Over 2.5 44.0% 44.4% 2.25 -1.0%

Over 3.5 23.2% 23.8% 4.20 -1.5%

BTTS 48.5% 54.1% 1.85 -10.3%

Home O1.5 33.5% 38.5% 2.60 -12.9%

Away O1.5 36.6% 33.9% 2.95 +8.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.5%

D 30% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.3%

#2 0–0 12.0%

#3 0–1 14.2%

#4 1–0 11.2%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

America MG0.9

Ceara1.2

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AMERICA MG · PPG 0.25

CEARA · PPG 0.75

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.25) vs Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

America MG (H) 33.0%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV -18.8%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -4.9%

Ceara (A) 36.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

America MG face Ceara in Brazil - Serie B on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives America MG a 33% chance, the draw 30% and Ceara 37%, so Ceara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for America MG and 1.2 for Ceara (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, America MG are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 0.75 for Ceara. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +8.0%. This match finished 1-1.

America MG vs Ceara Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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