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Vaajakoski vs Huima/Urho Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 15:30

Vaajakoski

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Huima/Urho

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.5% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.7%0-21.1%0-31.1%0-4+1.6%1 1-00.8%1-12.3%1-23.3%1-33.3%1-4+4.9%2 2-01.2%2-13.5%2-25.1%2-34.9%2-4+7.4%3 3-01.2%3-13.5%3-25.1%3-35.0%3-4+7.5%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-15.7%4+-28.3%4+-38.1%4+-4+12.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 36.4% 2.75 +25.7%

Draw 19.7% 27.8% 3.60 -17.4%

Away win 34.6% 48.8% 2.05 -29.1%

Over 2.5 79.5% 87.7% 1.14 -9.4%

Over 3.5 62.2% 73.5% 1.36 -15.4%

BTTS 72.7% 83.3% 1.20 -12.8%

Home O1.5 76.2% 69.4% 1.44 +9.7%

Away O1.5 69.1% 73.5% 1.36 -6.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 88%

BTTS 81%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 6.0%

Bet Hit 88%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob72.7%

H 46% / xG 3.0-2.9 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 73%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 5.1%

#2 2–2 5.1%

#3 3–3 5.0%

#4 2–3 4.9%

#5 4–2 3.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vaajakoski3.0

Huima/Urho2.9

COMBINED 6.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.5% · O3.5 PROB 62.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VAAJAKOSKI · PPG 1.50

HUIMA/URHO · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Vaajakoski (H) 45.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +25.7%

Draw 19.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -17.4%

Huima/Urho (A) 34.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -29.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vaajakoski face Huima/Urho in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vaajakoski a 46% chance, the draw 20% and Huima/Urho 35%, so Vaajakoski are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Vaajakoski and 2.9 for Huima/Urho (6.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 73% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vaajakoski are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.17 for Huima/Urho. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +41.3%.

Vaajakoski vs Huima/Urho Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Kakkonen Group C Predictions