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S. Gongfu vs Yanbian Longdin Prediction— China - League One

Friday, July 17, 2026

S. Gongfu

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Yanbian Longdin

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.86) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.9%0-119.4%0-213.5%0-36.3%0-4+3.0%1 1-08.0%1-111.2%1-27.8%1-33.6%1-4+1.7%2 2-02.3%2-13.2%2-22.3%2-31.0%2-4+0.5%3 3-00.4%3-10.6%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.1% — — —

Draw 26.4% — — —

Away win 59.5% — — —

Over 2.5 44.0% — — —

Over 3.5 25.1% — — —

BTTS 46.8% — — —

Home O1.5 33.3% — — —

Away O1.5 39.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -43.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob46.8%

A 60% / xG 0.6-1.4 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 19.4%

#2 0–0 13.9%

#3 0–2 13.5%

#4 1–1 11.2%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Gongfu0.6

Yanbian Longdin1.4

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 25.1%

Form & verdict PPG

S. GONGFU · PPG 1.00

YANBIAN LONGDIN · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.86) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

S. Gongfu (H) 14.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Yanbian Longdin (A) 59.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Gongfu face Yanbian Longdin in China - League One on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Gongfu a 14% chance, the draw 26% and Yanbian Longdin 60%, so Yanbian Longdin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for S. Gongfu and 1.4 for Yanbian Longdin (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Gongfu are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.86 for Yanbian Longdin.

S. Gongfu vs Yanbian Longdin Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League One Predictions