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Porreres vs A. Baleares Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Group 3 - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 10:00

Porreres

PPG 1.07 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

A. Baleares

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-115.3%0-29.9%0-34.3%0-4+1.8%1 1-010.0%1-112.9%1-28.3%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-04.2%2-15.4%2-23.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.2%3-11.5%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.3% 15.4% 6.50 +58.0%

Draw 28.7% 27.4% 3.65 +4.8%

Away win 47.1% 69.4% 1.44 -32.2%

Over 2.5 36.0% 50.0% 2.00 -28.0%

Over 3.5 16.8% — — —

BTTS 41.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob41.3%

A 47% / xG 0.8-1.3 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1✓ 15.3%

#2 1–1 12.9%

#3 0–0 11.8%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 0–2 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Porreres0.8

A. Baleares1.3

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.0% · O3.5 PROB 16.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PORRERES · PPG 1.07

A. BALEARES · PPG 1.33

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.07), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Porreres (H) 24.3%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +58.0%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +4.8%

A. Baleares (A) 47.1%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -32.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Porreres face A. Baleares in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Porreres a 24% chance, the draw 29% and A. Baleares 47%, so A. Baleares are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Porreres and 1.3 for A. Baleares (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Porreres are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.33 for A. Baleares. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +58.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Porreres vs A. Baleares Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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