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Alcoyano vs Sant Andreu Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Group 3 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

Alcoyano

PPG 1.88 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Sant Andreu

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.7%0-112.3%0-24.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.0%1-112.5%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.7%2-16.4%2-22.1%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.3%3-12.2%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 57.1% 1.75 -31.9%

Draw 33.6% 31.3% 3.20 +7.5%

Away win 27.5% 23.1% 4.33 +19.1%

Over 2.5 35.9% 44.4% 2.25 -19.2%

Over 3.5 9.0% — — —

BTTS 46.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.1%

H 39% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.7%

#2 1–0 19.0%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 0–1 12.3%

#5 2–0✓ 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alcoyano1.0

Sant Andreu0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 9.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ALCOYANO · PPG 1.88

SANT ANDREU · PPG 1.69

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.88), Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

Alcoyano (H) 38.9%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -31.9%

Draw 33.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +7.5%

Sant Andreu (A) 27.5%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +19.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alcoyano face Sant Andreu in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alcoyano a 39% chance, the draw 34% and Sant Andreu 28%, so Alcoyano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Alcoyano and 0.7 for Sant Andreu (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alcoyano are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.69 for Sant Andreu. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Alcoyano vs Sant Andreu Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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