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Atletic Lleida vs SD Ibiza Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Group 3 - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 10:00

Atletic Lleida

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

SD Ibiza

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 40.8% — a clear edge.

+33.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-16.8%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.9%1-111.5%1-25.5%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.7%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.7%3-15.5%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 40.8% 2.45 +33.3%

Draw 24.1% 32.3% 3.10 -25.3%

Away win 21.5% 38.5% 2.60 -44.1%

Over 2.5 49.6% 50.0% 2.00 -0.8%

Over 3.5 27.6% — — —

BTTS 50.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.5%

H 54% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 11.9%

#2 1–1 11.5%

#3 2–0✓ 10.0%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletic Lleida1.7

SD Ibiza1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETIC LLEIDA · PPG 1.00

SD IBIZA · PPG 0.63

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.63)

Win probability 1X2

Atletic Lleida (H) 54.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +33.3%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -25.3%

SD Ibiza (A) 21.5%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -44.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletic Lleida face SD Ibiza in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletic Lleida a 54% chance, the draw 24% and SD Ibiza 22%, so Atletic Lleida are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Atletic Lleida and 1.0 for SD Ibiza (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletic Lleida are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.63 for SD Ibiza. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +33.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Atletic Lleida vs SD Ibiza Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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