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Atletic Lleida vs SD Ibiza Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 logo Spain flag Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Group 3 - 32 Camp d'Esports de Lleida· Lleida Sunday, April 19, 2026 10:00
Atletic Lleida logo Atletic Lleida PPG 1.00
2-0 HIT CS3
SD Ibiza logo SD Ibiza PPG 0.63
Home· +33.3% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletic Lleida face SD Ibiza in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletic Lleida a 54% chance, the draw 24% and SD Ibiza 22%, so Atletic Lleida are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Atletic Lleida and 1.0 for SD Ibiza (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletic Lleida are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.63 for SD Ibiza. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +33.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 54.4%
Odds: 2.45 EV: +33.3%
Draw 24.1%
Odds: 3.10 EV: -25.3%
Away 21.5%
Odds: 2.60 EV: -44.1%
Model lean: Home
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 49.6% Odds: 2.00 -0.8%
Over 3.5 27.6% Odds: —
BTTS 50.5% Odds: —
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0
2nd 1-1
3rd 2-0
4th 2-1
5th 0-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Atletic Lleida
1.69
SD Ibiza
0.97

Model Suggestion

Home +33.3% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
75%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.63)

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