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Sant Andreu vs Reus FC Reddis Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Group 3 - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 16:00

Sant Andreu

PPG 2.40 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Reus FC Reddis

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+16.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-14.3%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.6%1-19.2%1-24.0%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.8%2-24.3%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.0%3-17.0%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-16.1%4+-22.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.5% 57.1% 1.75 +16.4%

Draw 19.4% 32.3% 3.10 -39.9%

Away win 14.1% 21.7% 4.60 -35.1%

Over 2.5 57.8% — — —

Over 3.5 35.4% — — —

BTTS 51.2% 50.0% 2.00 +2.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.2%

H 66% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.3%

#2 1–0 10.6%

#3 2–1✓ 9.8%

#4 1–1 9.2%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sant Andreu2.1

Reus FC Reddis0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.8% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SANT ANDREU · PPG 2.40

REUS FC REDDIS · PPG 1.33

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.40), Away AVERAGE (1.33) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sant Andreu (H) 66.5%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +16.4%

Draw 19.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -39.9%

Reus FC Reddis (A) 14.1%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -35.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sant Andreu face Reus FC Reddis in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sant Andreu a 67% chance, the draw 19% and Reus FC Reddis 14%, so Sant Andreu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Sant Andreu and 0.9 for Reus FC Reddis (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sant Andreu are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.33 for Reus FC Reddis. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Sant Andreu vs Reus FC Reddis Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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