Today / Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 / Castellon B vs Valencia B

Castellon B vs Valencia B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Group 3 - 32 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Castellon B

PPG 1.40 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Valencia B

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-11.2%0-21.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-02.3%1-14.0%1-23.5%1-32.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-03.6%2-16.4%2-25.6%2-33.2%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.9%3-16.8%3-25.9%3-33.4%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-112.1%4+-210.5%4+-36.1%4+-4+4.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.3% 40.8% 2.45 +62.4%

Draw 15.3% 32.3% 3.10 -52.6%

Away win 18.4% 40.0% 2.50 -54.0%

Over 2.5 87.0% — — —

Over 3.5 72.7% — — —

BTTS 79.2% 69.4% 1.44 +14.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 79%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob79.2%

H 66% / xG 3.2-1.7 / O2.5 87% / BTTS 79%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.8%

#2 2–1 6.4%

#3 3–2 5.9%

#4 2–2 5.6%

#5 4–1 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Castellon B3.2

Valencia B1.7

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 87.0% · O3.5 PROB 72.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CASTELLON B · PPG 1.40

VALENCIA B · PPG 0.73

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.73)

Win probability 1X2

Castellon B (H) 66.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +62.4%

Draw 15.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -52.6%

Valencia B (A) 18.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -54.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Castellon B face Valencia B in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Castellon B a 66% chance, the draw 15% and Valencia B 18%, so Castellon B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Castellon B and 1.7 for Valencia B (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 87% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 79% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Castellon B are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.73 for Valencia B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +62.4%. This match finished 0-4.

Castellon B vs Valencia B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Predictions