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Valencia B vs Espanyol B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Group 3 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

Valencia B

PPG 1.69 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Espanyol B

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-16.8%0-23.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.2%1-111.4%1-25.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.7%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.3%3-15.5%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 52.6% 1.90 -12.0%

Draw 28.3% 31.3% 3.20 -9.4%

Away win 25.4% 28.6% 3.50 -11.1%

Over 2.5 51.6% 52.6% 1.90 -2.0%

Over 3.5 29.0% — — —

BTTS 57.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob57.8%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0 11.2%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valencia B1.7

Espanyol B1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VALENCIA B · PPG 1.69

ESPANYOL B · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Valencia B (H) 46.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -12.0%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.4%

Espanyol B (A) 25.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valencia B face Espanyol B in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valencia B a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Espanyol B 25%, so Valencia B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Valencia B and 1.0 for Espanyol B (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valencia B are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.25 for Espanyol B. This match finished 3-0.

Valencia B vs Espanyol B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Predictions