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Espanyol B vs Girona B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Group 3 - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 16:30

Espanyol B

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Girona B

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-111.1%0-24.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.8%1-113.1%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.4%2-17.8%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.7%3-13.1%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 44.4% 2.25 -0.5%

Draw 30.1% 35.7% 2.80 -15.7%

Away win 25.7% 32.3% 3.10 -20.3%

Over 2.5 32.7% — — —

Over 3.5 14.5% — — —

BTTS 39.1% 50.0% 2.00 -21.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob39.1%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.8%

#2 0–0 13.4%

#3 1–1 13.1%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Espanyol B1.2

Girona B0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.7% · O3.5 PROB 14.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ESPANYOL B · PPG 1.40

GIRONA B · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Espanyol B (H) 44.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -0.5%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -15.7%

Girona B (A) 25.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Espanyol B face Girona B in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Espanyol B a 44% chance, the draw 30% and Girona B 26%, so Espanyol B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Espanyol B and 0.8 for Girona B (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Espanyol B are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.93 for Girona B. This match finished 2-1.

Espanyol B vs Girona B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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