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Forge vs Pacific Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Group Stage ·Thursday, July 16, 2026, 23:00

Forge

PPG 2.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Pacific

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.6% vs bookmaker-implied 78.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-12.8%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.9%1-16.8%1-21.8%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.4%2-18.1%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.3%3-16.5%3-21.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-013.0%4+-16.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.6% 78.7% 1.27 -9.1%

Draw 18.3% 20.0% 5.00 -5.1%

Away win 10.1% 10.2% 9.80 -0.6%

Over 2.5 60.9% 65.4% 1.53 -6.8%

Over 3.5 37.4% 42.6% 2.35 -12.1%

BTTS 48.5% 54.1% 1.85 -10.3%

Home O1.5 62.9% 74.1% 1.35 -15.1%

Away O1.5 18.8% 21.1% 4.75 -6.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 51.8%

Bet Hit 89%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.5%

H 72% / xG 2.4-0.5 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.4%

#2 3–0 12.3%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 1–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Forge2.4

Pacific0.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FORGE · PPG 2.67

PACIFIC · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.67), Away POOR (0.40) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Forge (H) 71.6%

ODDS 1.27 · IMPLIED 78.7% EV -9.1%

Draw 18.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -5.1%

Pacific (A) 10.1%

ODDS 9.80 · IMPLIED 10.2% EV -0.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Forge face Pacific in Canada - Premier League on Thursday, July 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Forge a 72% chance, the draw 18% and Pacific 10%, so Forge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Forge and 0.5 for Pacific (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Forge are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 0.40 for Pacific.

Forge vs Pacific Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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