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CRB vs Nautico Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 18 ·Thursday, July 16, 2026, 23:00

CRB

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nautico

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.3%0-25.1%0-32.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.3%1-111.4%1-27.9%1-33.6%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-18.9%2-26.1%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.3%3-14.6%3-23.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.5%4+-21.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.5% 51.0% 1.96 -20.6%

Draw 24.8% 30.8% 3.25 -11.6%

Away win 34.8% 25.3% 3.95 +37.5%

Over 2.5 60.9% 51.3% 1.95 +18.8%

Over 3.5 37.4% 29.9% 3.35 +25.3%

BTTS 61.0% 57.8% 1.73 +5.5%

Home O1.5 46.7% 50.0% 2.00 -6.6%

Away O1.5 39.0% 31.3% 3.20 +24.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 52.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.0%

H 40% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 0–0 5.3%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CRB1.6

Nautico1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CRB · PPG 1.00

NAUTICO · PPG 1.22

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.22)

Win probability 1X2

CRB (H) 40.5%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -20.6%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.6%

Nautico (A) 34.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +37.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

CRB face Nautico in Brazil - Serie B on Thursday, July 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CRB a 41% chance, the draw 25% and Nautico 35%, so CRB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for CRB and 1.4 for Nautico (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CRB are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.22 for Nautico. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +37.5%.

CRB vs Nautico Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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