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Afturelding vs Leiknir R. Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 14 ·Thursday, July 16, 2026, 19:15

Afturelding

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Leiknir R.

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.6%0-21.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.6%1-16.8%1-24.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.4%2-19.0%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.6%3-17.9%3-24.8%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-08.2%4+-19.9%4+-26.0%4+-32.4%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.2% 75.2% 1.33 -14.6%

Draw 16.7% 20.0% 5.00 -9.9%

Away win 19.1% 14.7% 6.80 +17.9%

Over 2.5 67.1% 75.2% 1.33 -10.8%

Over 3.5 48.0% 55.6% 1.80 -13.6%

BTTS 62.7% 67.6% 1.48 -7.2%

Home O1.5 63.5% 80.0% 1.25 -20.6%

Away O1.5 37.6% 33.9% 2.95 +10.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 12%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.7%

H 64% / xG 2.6-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 3–1 7.9%

#3 1–1 6.8%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 3–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Afturelding2.6

Leiknir R.1.2

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 48.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AFTURELDING · PPG 2.17

LEIKNIR R. · PPG 1.33

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=64.2%

Win probability 1X2

Afturelding (H) 64.2%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -14.6%

Draw 16.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -9.9%

Leiknir R. (A) 19.1%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Afturelding face Leiknir R. in Iceland on Thursday, July 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Afturelding a 64% chance, the draw 17% and Leiknir R. 19%, so Afturelding are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Afturelding and 1.2 for Leiknir R. (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Afturelding are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.33 for Leiknir R.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.9%.

Afturelding vs Leiknir R. Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

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