Today / Iceland / HK Kopavogur vs IR Reykjavik

HK Kopavogur vs IR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 16 ·Tuesday, July 14, 2026, 17:00

HK Kopavogur

PPG 2.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

IR Reykjavik

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.3% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.4%0-21.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.3%1 1-02.9%1-14.5%1-23.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-04.6%2-17.0%2-25.4%2-32.7%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.8%3-17.4%3-25.7%3-32.9%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-08.4%4+-112.9%4+-29.8%4+-35.0%4+-4+2.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.2% 57.1% 1.75 +12.3%

Draw 16.7% 24.4% 4.10 -18.9%

Away win 19.1% 28.2% 3.55 -19.3%

Over 2.5 72.3% 75.2% 1.33 -3.8%

Over 3.5 52.3% 55.6% 1.80 -5.9%

BTTS 64.8% 76.9% 1.30 -15.8%

Home O1.5 76.2% 70.4% 1.42 +8.2%

Away O1.5 50.2% 50.0% 2.00 +0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 13%

ROI -4.6%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob64.8%

H 64% / xG 3.2-1.5 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.4%

#2 2–1 7.0%

#3 4–1 5.8%

#4 3–2 5.7%

#5 2–2 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HK Kopavogur3.2

IR Reykjavik1.5

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.3% · O3.5 PROB 52.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HK KOPAVOGUR · PPG 2.67

IR REYKJAVIK · PPG 0.50

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs P(Home)=64.2%

Win probability 1X2

HK Kopavogur (H) 64.2%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +12.3%

Draw 16.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -18.9%

IR Reykjavik (A) 19.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -19.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

HK Kopavogur face IR Reykjavik in Iceland on Tuesday, July 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HK Kopavogur a 64% chance, the draw 17% and IR Reykjavik 19%, so HK Kopavogur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for HK Kopavogur and 1.5 for IR Reykjavik (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HK Kopavogur are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 0.50 for IR Reykjavik. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +29.4%.

HK Kopavogur vs IR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland Predictions