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Vestri vs Fylkir Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 13 ·Monday, July 13, 2026, 20:15

Vestri

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fylkir

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.1%0-23.5%0-32.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-04.8%1-18.2%1-27.1%1-34.0%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.9%2-18.3%2-27.2%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-03.3%3-15.6%3-24.8%3-32.8%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-14.6%4+-23.9%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 23.8% 4.20 +91.1%

Draw 22.0% 25.3% 3.95 -7.9%

Away win 32.5% 61.0% 1.64 -46.7%

Over 2.5 67.2% 65.4% 1.53 +2.8%

Over 3.5 44.1% 42.6% 2.35 +3.6%

BTTS 63.2% 65.4% 1.53 -3.3%

Home O1.5 56.2% 37.0% 2.70 +51.7%

Away O1.5 50.2% 65.4% 1.53 -23.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 7%

ROI -12.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.2%

H 46% / xG 2.0-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 1–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vestri2.0

Fylkir1.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VESTRI · PPG 2.17

FYLKIR · PPG 2.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.17), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Vestri (H) 45.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +91.1%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -7.9%

Fylkir (A) 32.5%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -46.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vestri face Fylkir in Iceland on Monday, July 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vestri a 46% chance, the draw 22% and Fylkir 33%, so Vestri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Vestri and 1.7 for Fylkir (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vestri are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 2.00 for Fylkir. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +101.0%.

Vestri vs Fylkir Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

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