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Fram vs Thor Akureyri Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 18:00

Fram

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Thor Akureyri

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.8% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.0%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.2%1-13.7%1-22.1%1-30.8%1-4+0.3%2 2-05.7%2-16.6%2-23.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.7%3-17.8%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-014.9%4+-117.3%4+-210.0%4+-33.9%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.3% 76.9% 1.30 -16.4%

Draw 16.8% 18.2% 5.50 -4.6%

Away win 18.9% 14.8% 6.75 +16.6%

Over 2.5 72.8% 82.0% 1.22 -11.2%

Over 3.5 52.9% 61.7% 1.62 -14.3%

BTTS 63.2% 71.4% 1.40 -11.5%

Home O1.5 75.9% 84.7% 1.18 -10.4%

Away O1.5 35.7% 37.7% 2.65 -5.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.2%

H 64% / xG 3.6-1.2 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.8%

#2 4–1 6.9%

#3 3–0 6.7%

#4 2–1 6.6%

#5 4–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fram3.6

Thor Akureyri1.2

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.8% · O3.5 PROB 52.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FRAM · PPG 2.17

THOR AKUREYRI · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=64.3%

Win probability 1X2

Fram (H) 64.3%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -16.4%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -4.6%

Thor Akureyri (A) 18.9%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV +16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fram face Thor Akureyri in Iceland on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fram a 64% chance, the draw 17% and Thor Akureyri 19%, so Fram are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.6 for Fram and 1.2 for Thor Akureyri (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fram are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.67 for Thor Akureyri. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.6%.

Fram vs Thor Akureyri Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

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