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KA Akureyri vs IA Akranes Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 18:00

KA Akureyri

PPG 0.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

IA Akranes

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-16.9%0-25.0%0-32.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.5%1-111.0%1-28.0%1-33.9%1-4+2.0%2 2-06.0%2-18.7%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.2%3-14.6%3-23.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.6%4+-21.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 40.0% 2.50 +9.3%

Draw 23.1% 26.7% 3.75 -8.0%

Away win 33.2% 42.9% 2.33 -22.6%

Over 2.5 64.0% 70.4% 1.42 -9.1%

Over 3.5 39.9% 47.6% 2.10 -16.2%

BTTS 62.4% 73.5% 1.36 -15.1%

Home O1.5 49.0% 55.6% 1.80 -11.8%

Away O1.5 49.5% 57.1% 1.75 -13.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.4%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–0 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KA Akureyri1.6

IA Akranes1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KA AKUREYRI · PPG 0.50

IA AKRANES · PPG 1.43

⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength

70%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.43) strong but model favors Home (P=43.7%)

Win probability 1X2

KA Akureyri (H) 43.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +9.3%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -8.0%

IA Akranes (A) 33.2%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -22.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

KA Akureyri face IA Akranes in Iceland on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KA Akureyri a 44% chance, the draw 23% and IA Akranes 33%, so KA Akureyri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for KA Akureyri and 1.5 for IA Akranes (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KA Akureyri are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.43 for IA Akranes. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.3%.

KA Akureyri vs IA Akranes Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

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