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Magni vs Haukar Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 16:00

Magni

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Haukar

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-14.9%0-25.9%0-34.7%0-4+5.1%1 1-03.0%1-17.2%1-28.8%1-37.0%1-4+7.5%2 2-02.2%2-15.4%2-26.5%2-35.2%2-4+5.6%3 3-01.1%3-12.7%3-23.2%3-32.6%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.4%4+-21.7%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.7% 20.0% 5.00 +20.1%

Draw 20.3% 21.7% 4.60 -4.0%

Away win 53.0% 71.4% 1.40 -25.8%

Over 2.5 67.2% 75.2% 1.33 -10.6%

Over 3.5 46.9% 57.1% 1.75 -17.9%

BTTS 63.2% 71.4% 1.40 -11.5%

Home O1.5 45.2% 37.9% 2.64 +19.3%

Away O1.5 68.2% 80.0% 1.25 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob63.2%

A 53% / xG 1.5-2.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.8%

#2 1–1 7.2%

#3 1–3 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Magni1.5

Haukar2.4

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 46.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MAGNI · PPG 1.75

HAUKAR · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Magni (H) 26.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +20.1%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -4.0%

Haukar (A) 53.0%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -25.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Magni face Haukar in Iceland on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Magni a 27% chance, the draw 20% and Haukar 53%, so Haukar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Magni and 2.4 for Haukar (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Magni are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.40 for Haukar. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +25.0%.

Magni vs Haukar Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

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