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KR Reykjavik vs IBV Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 18:00

KR Reykjavik

PPG 2.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

IBV

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.8% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-10.7%0-20.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-01.4%1-12.6%1-22.4%1-31.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-02.7%2-14.9%2-24.5%2-32.7%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.4%3-16.1%3-25.6%3-33.4%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-115.1%4+-213.7%4+-38.3%4+-4+5.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.2% 71.4% 1.40 -11.5%

Draw 16.5% 19.6% 5.10 -9.5%

Away win 20.3% 19.2% 5.20 +3.3%

Over 2.5 79.8% 82.0% 1.22 -2.6%

Over 3.5 56.1% 66.7% 1.50 -15.8%

BTTS 69.4% 76.9% 1.30 -9.8%

Home O1.5 77.1% 83.3% 1.20 -7.5%

Away O1.5 50.2% 46.5% 2.15 +7.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.4%

H 63% / xG 3.7-1.8 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.1%

#2 4–1 5.7%

#3 3–2 5.6%

#4 4–2 5.2%

#5 2–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KR Reykjavik3.7

IBV1.8

COMBINED 5.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.8% · O3.5 PROB 56.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KR REYKJAVIK · PPG 2.71

IBV · PPG 0.83

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.71) vs P(Home)=63.2%

Win probability 1X2

KR Reykjavik (H) 63.2%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -11.5%

Draw 16.5%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -9.5%

IBV (A) 20.3%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

KR Reykjavik face IBV in Iceland on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KR Reykjavik a 63% chance, the draw 17% and IBV 20%, so KR Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.7 for KR Reykjavik and 1.8 for IBV (5.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KR Reykjavik are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 0.83 for IBV. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +16.0%.

KR Reykjavik vs IBV Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

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