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Kormakur/Hvot vs V. Olafsvik Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 16:00

Kormakur/Hvot

PPG 2.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

V. Olafsvik

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 72.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+22.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-11.2%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.7%1-14.0%1-21.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.1%2-16.9%2-22.9%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.3%3-17.9%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-019.3%4+-116.4%4+-27.0%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.2% 58.8% 1.70 +22.7%

Draw 17.8% 26.3% 3.80 -19.4%

Away win 10.0% 27.0% 3.70 -37.8%

Over 2.5 67.2% 73.5% 1.36 -8.6%

Over 3.5 49.1% 54.6% 1.83 -10.2%

BTTS 55.6% 73.5% 1.36 -24.4%

Home O1.5 75.9% 70.9% 1.41 +7.0%

Away O1.5 21.2% 46.7% 2.14 -32.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.6%

H 72% / xG 3.4-0.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.3%

#2 2–0 8.1%

#3 4–0 8.0%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 2–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kormakur/Hvot3.4

V. Olafsvik0.8

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 49.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KORMAKUR/HVOT · PPG 2.25

V. OLAFSVIK · PPG 0.60

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.25), Away POOR (0.60) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Kormakur/Hvot (H) 72.2%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV +22.7%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -19.4%

V. Olafsvik (A) 10.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -37.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kormakur/Hvot face V. Olafsvik in Iceland on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kormakur/Hvot a 72% chance, the draw 18% and V. Olafsvik 10%, so Kormakur/Hvot are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Kormakur/Hvot and 0.8 for V. Olafsvik (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kormakur/Hvot are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.60 for V. Olafsvik. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +44.6%.

Kormakur/Hvot vs V. Olafsvik Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

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