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Breidablik vs Keflavik Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 14 ·Monday, July 13, 2026, 19:15

Breidablik

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Keflavik

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 74.7% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.2%0-21.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.3%1 1-02.5%1-14.0%1-23.1%1-31.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-04.1%2-16.5%2-25.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.5%3-17.2%3-25.7%3-33.0%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-113.6%4+-210.8%4+-35.7%4+-4+3.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.7% 63.7% 1.57 -4.7%

Draw 17.5% 23.1% 4.33 -14.5%

Away win 21.8% 23.1% 4.33 -3.4%

Over 2.5 74.7% 76.9% 1.30 -2.9%

Over 3.5 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

BTTS 69.4% 75.2% 1.33 -7.7%

Home O1.5 75.9% 74.1% 1.35 +2.5%

Away O1.5 50.2% 45.5% 2.20 +10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 7%

ROI -12.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob69.4%

H 61% / xG 3.3-1.6 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.2%

#2 2–1 6.5%

#3 4–1 5.9%

#4 3–2 5.7%

#5 2–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Breidablik3.3

Keflavik1.6

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.7% · O3.5 PROB 52.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BREIDABLIK · PPG 2.17

KEFLAVIK · PPG 1.17

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=60.7%

Win probability 1X2

Breidablik (H) 60.7%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -4.7%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -14.5%

Keflavik (A) 21.8%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Breidablik face Keflavik in Iceland on Monday, July 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Breidablik a 61% chance, the draw 18% and Keflavik 22%, so Breidablik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Breidablik and 1.6 for Keflavik (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Breidablik are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.17 for Keflavik. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +22.4%.

Breidablik vs Keflavik Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

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