Today / Iceland / Hafnarfjordur vs Valur

Hafnarfjordur vs Valur Prediction— Iceland

Matchday 14 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 20:05

Hafnarfjordur

PPG 0.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLDW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Valur

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-16.7%0-26.0%0-33.6%0-4+2.4%1 1-05.6%1-110.0%1-29.0%1-35.3%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.2%2-17.5%2-26.7%2-34.0%2-4+2.7%3 3-02.1%3-13.7%3-23.3%3-32.0%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.9%4+-21.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 43.5% 2.30 -18.8%

Draw 23.4% 26.0% 3.85 -5.9%

Away win 41.3% 40.8% 2.45 +1.2%

Over 2.5 64.0% 72.5% 1.38 -11.7%

Over 3.5 39.9% 50.0% 2.00 -20.2%

BTTS 62.4% 75.2% 1.33 -17.0%

Home O1.5 45.2% 58.8% 1.70 -23.2%

Away O1.5 50.2% 57.1% 1.75 -12.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 15%

ROI 21.3%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob62.4%

A 41% / xG 1.5-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hafnarfjordur1.5

Valur1.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HAFNARFJORDUR · PPG 0.50

VALUR · PPG 1.29

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.29) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Hafnarfjordur (H) 35.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -18.8%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -5.9%

Valur (A) 41.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +1.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hafnarfjordur face Valur in Iceland on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hafnarfjordur a 35% chance, the draw 23% and Valur 41%, so Valur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Hafnarfjordur and 1.8 for Valur (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hafnarfjordur are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.29 for Valur. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Hafnarfjordur vs Valur Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland Predictions