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Throttur Vogar vs KFG Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 16:00

Throttur Vogar

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

KFG

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-12.7%0-21.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.5%1-17.0%1-24.5%1-31.9%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.1%2-19.0%2-25.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.1%3-17.7%3-24.9%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-19.1%4+-25.8%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.4% 64.5% 1.55 -9.5%

Draw 21.5% 23.8% 4.20 -5.8%

Away win 20.1% 23.8% 4.20 -9.3%

Over 2.5 67.2% 75.2% 1.33 -10.6%

Over 3.5 49.1% 57.5% 1.74 -14.6%

BTTS 63.2% 73.5% 1.36 -14.1%

Home O1.5 63.0% 73.0% 1.37 -13.7%

Away O1.5 38.4% 43.5% 2.30 -11.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.2%

H 58% / xG 2.6-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 1–1 7.0%

#3 3–1 7.7%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 3–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Throttur Vogar2.6

KFG1.3

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 49.1%

Form & verdict PPG

THROTTUR VOGAR · PPG 1.67

KFG · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=58.4%

Win probability 1X2

Throttur Vogar (H) 58.4%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -9.5%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.8%

KFG (A) 20.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Throttur Vogar face KFG in Iceland on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Throttur Vogar a 58% chance, the draw 22% and KFG 20%, so Throttur Vogar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Throttur Vogar and 1.3 for KFG (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Throttur Vogar are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.75 for KFG.

Throttur Vogar vs KFG Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

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