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Valladolid B vs Langreo Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 10:00

Valladolid B

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Langreo

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.3%0-23.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.6%1-110.0%1-26.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.5%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.6%3-16.0%3-24.0%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.4%4+-22.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 46.5% 2.15 +9.7%

Draw 22.4% 30.3% 3.30 -26.1%

Away win 26.6% 35.7% 2.80 -25.5%

Over 2.5 62.4% 57.8% 1.73 +8.0%

Over 3.5 40.1% — — —

BTTS 62.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.3%

H 51% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 7.6%

#4 2–0 7.2%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valladolid B1.9

Langreo1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VALLADOLID B · PPG 1.00

LANGREO · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Valladolid B (H) 51.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +9.7%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -26.1%

Langreo (A) 26.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -25.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valladolid B face Langreo in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valladolid B a 51% chance, the draw 22% and Langreo 27%, so Valladolid B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Valladolid B and 1.3 for Langreo (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valladolid B are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.13 for Langreo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.7%. This match finished 3-0.

Valladolid B vs Langreo Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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