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Coruxo vs Rayo Cantabria Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 16:00

Coruxo

PPG 1.40 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rayo Cantabria

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-15.9%0-23.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.3%1-110.6%1-26.8%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.5%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.4%3-15.7%3-23.6%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.8%4+-22.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% 52.6% 1.90 -5.9%

Draw 23.1% 30.3% 3.30 -23.8%

Away win 27.4% 28.6% 3.50 -4.1%

Over 2.5 59.3% 54.1% 1.85 +9.7%

Over 3.5 36.9% — — —

BTTS 60.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.2%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 8.3%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 1–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Coruxo1.8

Rayo Cantabria1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 36.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CORUXO · PPG 1.40

RAYO CANTABRIA · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Coruxo (H) 49.5%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -5.9%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -23.8%

Rayo Cantabria (A) 27.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Coruxo face Rayo Cantabria in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Coruxo a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Rayo Cantabria 27%, so Coruxo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Coruxo and 1.3 for Rayo Cantabria (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Coruxo are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.07 for Rayo Cantabria. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.7%. This match finished 3-1.

Coruxo vs Rayo Cantabria Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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