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Bergantinos vs UD Ourense Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

Bergantinos

PPG 1.44 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

UD Ourense

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-110.5%0-24.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.4%1-112.9%1-25.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.0%2-17.9%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.1%3-13.2%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 37.0% 2.70 +18.5%

Draw 30.8% 37.0% 2.70 -16.8%

Away win 25.2% 37.0% 2.70 -32.0%

Over 2.5 43.0% — — —

Over 3.5 14.6% — — —

BTTS 49.5% 51.3% 1.95 -3.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.5%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.3%

#2 1–1 12.9%

#3 1–0 16.4%

#4 2–0 10.0%

#5 0–1 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bergantinos1.2

UD Ourense0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.0% · O3.5 PROB 14.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BERGANTINOS · PPG 1.44

UD OURENSE · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.44), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Bergantinos (H) 43.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +18.5%

Draw 30.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -16.8%

UD Ourense (A) 25.2%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -32.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bergantinos face UD Ourense in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bergantinos a 44% chance, the draw 31% and UD Ourense 25%, so Bergantinos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Bergantinos and 0.8 for UD Ourense (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bergantinos are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.25 for UD Ourense. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.5%. This match finished 1-3.

Bergantinos vs UD Ourense Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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