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Burgos B vs Salamanca CF Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

Burgos B

PPG 1.31 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Salamanca CF

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+12.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-110.4%0-27.0%0-33.1%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.5%1-112.7%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.8%2-17.7%2-25.1%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.3%3-13.1%3-22.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% 20.8% 4.80 +70.4%

Draw 32.1% 25.0% 4.00 +28.4%

Away win 32.5% 65.4% 1.53 -50.3%

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 25.3% — — —

BTTS 57.8% 51.3% 1.95 +12.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob57.8%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 7.8%

#3 0–1 10.4%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 2–1✓ 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Burgos B1.2

Salamanca CF1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 25.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BURGOS B · PPG 1.31

SALAMANCA CF · PPG 1.31

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.31), Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Burgos B (H) 35.5%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +70.4%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +28.4%

Salamanca CF (A) 32.5%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -50.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Burgos B face Salamanca CF in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Burgos B a 36% chance, the draw 32% and Salamanca CF 33%, so Burgos B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Burgos B and 1.3 for Salamanca CF (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Burgos B are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.31 for Salamanca CF. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +70.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Burgos B vs Salamanca CF Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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