Samano vs Numancia Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Group 1 - 32 Campo de fútbol de Sámano· Cantabria Sunday, April 19, 2026 15:00

Samano PPG 0.73

0-3 HIT CS5

Numancia PPG 1.13

Home· +114.2% ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Samano face Numancia in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Samano a 13% chance, the draw 20% and Numancia 67%, so Numancia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Samano and 2.0 for Numancia (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Samano are averaging 0.73 points per game versus 1.13 for Numancia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +114.2%. This match finished 0-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 12.6%

Odds: 17.00 EV: +114.2%

Draw 20.4%

Odds: 5.00 EV: +2.0%

Away 67.0%

Odds: 1.17 EV: -21.6%

Model lean: Away Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.2% Odds: 1.65 -17.2%

Over 3.5 28.2% Odds: — —

BTTS 43.9% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-1 ✘

2nd 0-2 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 0-3 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Samano

0.71

Numancia

1.97

Model SuggestionAway -21.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Away, but EV is -21.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+114.2%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5/Under 46%

BTTS/No 36%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 60% (5 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.73) vs Away AVERAGE (1.13)