Today / Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 / Samano vs Numancia

Samano vs Numancia Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 15:00

Samano

PPG 0.73 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Numancia

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-113.5%0-213.3%0-38.7%0-4+6.8%1 1-04.9%1-19.6%1-29.5%1-36.2%1-4+4.8%2 2-01.7%2-13.4%2-23.4%2-32.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-00.4%3-10.8%3-20.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.6% 5.9% 17.00 +114.2%

Draw 20.4% 20.0% 5.00 +2.0%

Away win 67.0% 85.5% 1.17 -21.6%

Over 2.5 50.2% 60.6% 1.65 -17.2%

Over 3.5 28.2% — — —

BTTS 43.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 46%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob43.9%

A 67% / xG 0.7-2.0 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.5%

#2 0–2 13.3%

#3 1–1 9.6%

#4 1–2 9.5%

#5 0–3✓ 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Samano0.7

Numancia2.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMANO · PPG 0.73

NUMANCIA · PPG 1.13

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.73) vs Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Samano (H) 12.6%

ODDS 17.00 · IMPLIED 5.9% EV +114.2%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +2.0%

Numancia (A) 67.0%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Samano face Numancia in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Samano a 13% chance, the draw 20% and Numancia 67%, so Numancia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Samano and 2.0 for Numancia (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Samano are averaging 0.73 points per game versus 1.13 for Numancia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +114.2%. This match finished 0-3.

Samano vs Numancia Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions