Lealtad vs Coruxo Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Group 1 - 33 Estadio Las Callejas· Villaviciosa Sunday, April 26, 2026 10:00

Lealtad PPG 0.81

2-2 MISS

Coruxo PPG 1.50

Home· +113.8% ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Lealtad face Coruxo in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lealtad a 28% chance, the draw 32% and Coruxo 39%, so Coruxo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Lealtad and 1.3 for Coruxo (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lealtad are averaging 0.81 points per game versus 1.50 for Coruxo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +113.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 28.5%

Odds: 7.50 EV: +113.8%

Draw 32.3%

Odds: 3.90 EV: +26.0%

Away 39.2%

Odds: 1.36 EV: -46.7%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 44.4% Odds: 1.85 -17.9%

Over 3.5 18.3% Odds: — —

BTTS 50.1% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 0-2 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Lealtad

0.89

Coruxo

1.32

Model SuggestionBTTS  NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is — at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+113.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.81)