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Lealtad vs Coruxo Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

Lealtad

PPG 0.81 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Coruxo

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.81)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-114.5%0-29.6%0-34.3%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.7%1-112.9%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-04.3%2-15.7%2-23.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.3%3-11.7%3-21.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.5% 13.3% 7.50 +113.8%

Draw 32.3% 25.6% 3.90 +26.0%

Away win 39.2% 73.5% 1.36 -46.7%

Over 2.5 44.4% 54.1% 1.85 -17.9%

Over 3.5 18.3% — — —

BTTS 50.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob50.1%

A 39% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 44% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 11.0%

#3 0–1 14.5%

#4 0–2 9.6%

#5 1–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lealtad0.9

Coruxo1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 18.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LEALTAD · PPG 0.81

CORUXO · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.81)

Win probability 1X2

Lealtad (H) 28.5%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +113.8%

Draw 32.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +26.0%

Coruxo (A) 39.2%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -46.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lealtad face Coruxo in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lealtad a 28% chance, the draw 32% and Coruxo 39%, so Coruxo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Lealtad and 1.3 for Coruxo (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lealtad are averaging 0.81 points per game versus 1.50 for Coruxo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +113.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Lealtad vs Coruxo Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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