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Langreo vs Numancia Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

Langreo

PPG 1.56 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Numancia

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.8%0-113.5%0-26.6%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.8%1-113.5%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.9%2-16.8%2-23.3%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.3%3-12.3%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.5% 34.5% 2.90 +8.8%

Draw 32.8% 33.3% 3.00 -1.6%

Away win 29.6% 44.4% 2.25 -33.4%

Over 2.5 38.0% 48.8% 2.05 -22.1%

Over 3.5 13.9% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.5%

D 33% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.8%

#2 1–1✓ 13.5%

#3 1–0 13.8%

#4 0–1 13.5%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Langreo1.0

Numancia1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LANGREO · PPG 1.56

NUMANCIA · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.56) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Langreo (H) 37.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +8.8%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -1.6%

Numancia (A) 29.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -33.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Langreo face Numancia in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Langreo a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Numancia 30%, so Langreo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Langreo and 1.0 for Numancia (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Langreo are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.25 for Numancia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Langreo vs Numancia Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions