Langreo vs Numancia Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Group 1 - 33 Estadio Nuevo Ganzábal· La Felguera, Langreo Sunday, April 26, 2026 10:00

Langreo PPG 1.56

1-1 HIT CS2

Numancia PPG 1.25

Home· +8.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Langreo face Numancia in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Langreo a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Numancia 30%, so Langreo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Langreo and 1.0 for Numancia (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Langreo are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.25 for Numancia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 37.5%

Odds: 2.90 EV: +8.8%

Draw 32.8%

Odds: 3.00 EV: -1.6%

Away 29.6%

Odds: 2.25 EV: -33.4%

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 38.0% Odds: 2.05 -22.1%

Over 3.5 13.9% Odds: — —

BTTS 49.5% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-0 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✔

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Langreo

1.00

Numancia

0.98

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.56) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)