Today / Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 / Marino de L. vs Samano

Marino de L. vs Samano Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

Marino de L.

PPG 1.13 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Samano

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.6% vs bookmaker-implied 92.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-13.2%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.9%1-16.5%1-21.1%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-019.2%2-16.6%2-21.1%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.9%3-14.5%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-010.4%4+-13.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.6% 92.6% 1.08 -29.1%

Draw 24.9% 16.1% 6.20 +54.4%

Away win 9.5% 3.2% 31.00 +194.5%

Over 2.5 50.0% 66.7% 1.50 -25.0%

Over 3.5 21.5% — — —

BTTS 39.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob39.6%

H 66% / xG 2.0-0.3 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 19.2%

#2 1–0 18.9%

#3 3–0 12.9%

#4 0–0 9.3%

#5 1–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marino de L.2.0

Samano0.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 21.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MARINO DE L. · PPG 1.13

SAMANO · PPG 0.25

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.13), Away POOR (0.25) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Marino de L. (H) 65.6%

ODDS 1.08 · IMPLIED 92.6% EV -29.1%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +54.4%

Samano (A) 9.5%

ODDS 31.00 · IMPLIED 3.2% EV +194.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marino de L. face Samano in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marino de L. a 66% chance, the draw 25% and Samano 10%, so Marino de L. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Marino de L. and 0.3 for Samano (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marino de L. are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 0.25 for Samano. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +194.5%. This match finished 4-1.

Marino de L. vs Samano Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions