Marino de L. vs Samano Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Group 1 - 33 Estadi Municipal de Miramar· Luanco Sunday, April 26, 2026 10:00

Marino de L. PPG 1.13

4-1 MISS

Samano PPG 0.25

Away· +194.5% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Marino de L. face Samano in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marino de L. a 66% chance, the draw 25% and Samano 10%, so Marino de L. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Marino de L. and 0.3 for Samano (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marino de L. are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 0.25 for Samano. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +194.5%. This match finished 4-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 65.6%

Odds: 1.08 EV: -29.1%

Draw 24.9%

Odds: 6.20 EV: +54.4%

Away 9.5%

Odds: 31.00 EV: +194.5%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.0% Odds: 1.50 -25.0%

Over 3.5 21.5% Odds: — —

BTTS 39.6% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 3-0 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 1-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Marino de L.

2.02

Samano

0.34

Model SuggestionHome -29.1% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -29.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+194.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5/Under 46%

BTTS/No 36%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 60% (5 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.13), Away POOR (0.25) - Strong consensus