A. Astorga vs Sarriana Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Group 1 - 33 Estadio La Eragudina· Astorga Sunday, April 26, 2026 10:00

A. Astorga PPG 1.25

1-0 HIT CS3

Sarriana PPG 0.94

BTTS· -4.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Astorga face Sarriana in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Astorga a 43% chance, the draw 32% and Sarriana 26%, so A. Astorga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for A. Astorga and 1.1 for Sarriana (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Astorga are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.94 for Sarriana. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 42.6%

Odds: 2.20 EV: -6.3%

Draw 31.5%

Odds: 2.90 EV: -8.6%

Away 25.9%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -19.7%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.0% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 24.9% Odds: — —

BTTS 54.6% Odds: 1.75 -4.5%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✔

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

A. Astorga

1.46

Sarriana

1.07

Model SuggestionBTTS -4.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -4.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

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Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.94)