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A. Astorga vs Sarriana Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

A. Astorga

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sarriana

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-18.5%0-24.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.6%1-112.4%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.1%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.1%3-14.4%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.6% 45.5% 2.20 -6.3%

Draw 31.5% 34.5% 2.90 -8.6%

Away win 25.9% 32.3% 3.10 -19.7%

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 24.9% — — —

BTTS 54.6% 57.1% 1.75 -4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 43% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.9%

#3 1–0✓ 11.6%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Astorga1.5

Sarriana1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 24.9%

Form & verdict PPG

A. ASTORGA · PPG 1.25

SARRIANA · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

A. Astorga (H) 42.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -6.3%

Draw 31.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.6%

Sarriana (A) 25.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Astorga face Sarriana in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Astorga a 43% chance, the draw 32% and Sarriana 26%, so A. Astorga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for A. Astorga and 1.1 for Sarriana (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Astorga are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.94 for Sarriana. This match finished 1-0.

A. Astorga vs Sarriana Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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