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Real Avila vs Gimnastica Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 15:00

Real Avila

PPG 1.53 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Gimnastica

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-18.1%0-24.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.9%1-112.3%1-26.3%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.3%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.6%3-14.7%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% 51.3% 1.95 -5.4%

Draw 25.8% 32.3% 3.10 -20.0%

Away win 25.7% 28.6% 3.50 -10.1%

Over 2.5 46.6% 50.0% 2.00 -6.8%

Over 3.5 25.1% — — —

BTTS 50.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.0%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 2–1✓ 9.3%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 0–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Avila1.5

Gimnastica1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.6% · O3.5 PROB 25.1%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL AVILA · PPG 1.53

GIMNASTICA · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Real Avila (H) 48.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -5.4%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -20.0%

Gimnastica (A) 25.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Avila face Gimnastica in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Avila a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Gimnastica 26%, so Real Avila are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Real Avila and 1.0 for Gimnastica (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Avila are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.20 for Gimnastica. This match finished 2-1.

Real Avila vs Gimnastica Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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