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Athletic B. B vs Racing Ferrol Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 33 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 10:00

Athletic B. B

PPG 1.63 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Racing Ferrol

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+11.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-18.5%0-23.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.8%1-112.2%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-18.7%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.5%3-14.2%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 47.6% 2.10 +11.5%

Draw 27.0% 33.9% 2.95 -20.3%

Away win 20.0% 29.0% 3.45 -31.0%

Over 2.5 37.9% 42.6% 2.35 -10.9%

Over 3.5 18.2% 23.1% 4.33 -21.2%

BTTS 40.9% 51.3% 1.95 -20.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob40.9%

H 53% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.8%

#2 1–1 12.2%

#3 2–0 11.4%

#4 0–0 11.0%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletic B. B1.4

Racing Ferrol0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.9% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETIC B. B · PPG 1.63

RACING FERROL · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.63) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Athletic B. B (H) 53.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +11.5%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -20.3%

Racing Ferrol (A) 20.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -31.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletic B. B face Racing Ferrol in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletic B. B a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Racing Ferrol 20%, so Athletic B. B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Athletic B. B and 0.8 for Racing Ferrol (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletic B. B are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.00 for Racing Ferrol. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Athletic B. B vs Racing Ferrol Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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